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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tai Tuivasa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1453

Andrei ArlovskivsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsTai Tuivasa: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrei Arlovski has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Tai Tuivasa

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1492

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricTai Tuivasa

3.82

Strikes / min

3.37

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

57%

Strike defense

42%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

58%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.7|Blue -39.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

33% acc · 63%

Head

37% acc · 67%

70% acc · 14%

Body

80% acc · 22%

67% acc · 24%

Leg

86% acc · 11%

By position

40% acc · 90%

Distance

45% acc · 91%

71% acc · 10%

Clinch

45% acc · 9%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Tai Tuivasa rounds

Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:24

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 125

Sig Strikes

54 / 120

41.3%

Sig Str %

45%

52 / 126

Total Strikes

54 / 120

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

1:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tai Tuivasa	17 / 32	17 / 32	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	13 / 28	13 / 28	0 / 1
2	Tai Tuivasa	15 / 42	15 / 42	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	19 / 45	20 / 46	0 / 1
3	Tai Tuivasa	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	19 / 52	19 / 52	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17