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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Shamil Abdurakhimov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1447

Andrei ArlovskivsShamil AbdurakhimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Shamil Abdurakhimov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Shamil Abdurakhimov wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Shamil Abdurakhimov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shamil Abdurakhimov at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1492

Elo

1447

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Shamil AbdurakhimovL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Mar 22

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricShamil Abdurakhimov

3.82

Strikes / min

2.41

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

1.01

76%

Takedown defense

45%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiShamil Abdurakhimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.6|Blue -45.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetShamil Abdurakhimov

By target zone

18% acc · 44%

Head

38% acc · 59%

67% acc · 33%

Body

56% acc · 28%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

23% acc · 50%

Distance

29% acc · 38%

46% acc · 33%

Clinch

55% acc · 19%

50% acc · 17%

Ground

78% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

Round 1Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control0:19

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Shamil Abdurakhimov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 58

Sig Strikes

32 / 70

30%

Sig Str %

45%

27 / 71

Total Strikes

67 / 108

2 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	5 / 16	25 / 38	1 / 2
1	Andrei Arlovski	9 / 22	11 / 27	0 / 0
2	Shamil Abdurakhimov	16 / 23	30 / 38	1 / 1
2	Andrei Arlovski	5 / 17	9 / 22	2 / 2
3	Shamil Abdurakhimov	11 / 31	12 / 32	0 / 1
3	Andrei Arlovski	4 / 19	7 / 22	0 / 1

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11