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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1511

Andrei ArlovskivsPhilipe LinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · Wednesday, May 13, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsPhilipe Lins: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Philipe Lins enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Philipe Lins has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Philipe Lins

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1492

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Philipe LinsW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 20

vs Marcin Prachnio · Apr 22

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Feb 23

vs Maxim Grishin · Jun 23

vs Ion Cutelaba · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricPhilipe Lins

3.82

Strikes / min

3.80

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.59

57%

Strike defense

46%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

1.65

76%

Takedown defense

100%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiPhilipe Lins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Philipe Lins(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetPhilipe Lins

By target zone

32% acc · 44%

Head

37% acc · 63%

54% acc · 14%

Body

39% acc · 17%

84% acc · 42%

Leg

80% acc · 20%

By position

46% acc · 92%

Distance

40% acc · 93%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

75% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Philipe Lins rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 107

Sig Strikes

41 / 99

46.7%

Sig Str %

41%

50 / 107

Total Strikes

41 / 99

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Philipe Lins	17 / 34	17 / 34	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	17 / 33	17 / 33	0 / 0
2	Philipe Lins	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	16 / 34	16 / 34	0 / 0
3	Philipe Lins	11 / 32	11 / 32	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Philipe Lins

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6