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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1527

Andrei ArlovskivsMartin BudayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Saturday, June 29, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsMartin Buday: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Martin Buday has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Martin Buday

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1492

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · Feb 22

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

latest

Martin BudayW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 23

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricMartin Buday

3.82

Strikes / min

4.39

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.49

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.15

76%

Takedown defense

93%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiMartin Buday

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Martin Buday(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.4|Blue +34.4

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetMartin Buday

By target zone

49% acc · 46%

Head

47% acc · 44%

79% acc · 35%

Body

93% acc · 46%

82% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

56% acc · 73%

Distance

48% acc · 43%

91% acc · 27%

Clinch

86% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Martin Buday rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:48

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:18Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:09

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:01

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 119

Sig Strikes

54 / 84

60.7%

Sig Str %

61%

98 / 147

Total Strikes

165 / 199

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:58

Ctrl Time

2:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Martin Buday	8 / 21	55 / 69	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	14 / 25	16 / 28	0 / 1
2	Martin Buday	22 / 32	45 / 55	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	27 / 46	32 / 53	0 / 0
3	Martin Buday	24 / 31	65 / 75	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	33 / 48	50 / 66	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8