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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · SUB R1

Elo1492

Elo1506

Andrei ArlovskivsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:50

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1492

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · Feb 22

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.82

Strikes / min

3.70

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

57%

Strike defense

51%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

1.40

76%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.7|Blue +13.7

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

38% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 83%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 5

Sig Strikes

6 / 11

40%

Sig Str %

54%

3 / 6

Total Strikes

25 / 33

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	6 / 11	25 / 33	0 / 0	1
1	Andrei Arlovski	2 / 5	3 / 6	0 / 0	0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17