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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1495

Andrei ArlovskivsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1492

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricMarcin Tybura

3.82

Strikes / min

3.56

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

1.30

76%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

43% acc · 64%

Head

55% acc · 90%

70% acc · 25%

Body

43% acc · 6%

75% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

43% acc · 61%

Distance

23% acc · 10%

71% acc · 36%

Clinch

80% acc · 8%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

65% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:06Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control3:56

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 56

Sig Strikes

51 / 92

55%

Sig Str %

52.7%

41 / 74

Total Strikes

127 / 188

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

3:59

Ctrl Time

8:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Tybura	35 / 60	93 / 131	1 / 1
1	Andrei Arlovski	8 / 18	12 / 23	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	4 / 16	7 / 20	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	14 / 30	21 / 41	0 / 2
3	Marcin Tybura	12 / 16	27 / 37	1 / 2
3	Andrei Arlovski	6 / 8	8 / 10	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24