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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Josh Barnett won · SUB R3

Elo1492

Elo1491

Andrei ArlovskivsJosh BarnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Josh Barnett won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:53

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsJosh Barnett: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Josh Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Josh Barnett

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Josh Barnett

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Aug 13

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13

vs Roy Nelson · Sep 15

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricJosh Barnett

3.82

Strikes / min

3.20

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.11

57%

Strike defense

57%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

1.26

76%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiJosh Barnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Josh Barnett(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -99.0|Blue +99.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetJosh Barnett

By target zone

48% acc · 58%

Head

61% acc · 75%

100% acc · 29%

Body

80% acc · 23%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

49% acc · 50%

Distance

43% acc · 25%

80% acc · 42%

Clinch

71% acc · 28%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

81% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Josh Barnett rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:41

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 2Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:23

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 3Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:20

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 62

Sig Strikes

53 / 82

64.7%

Sig Str %

61%

51 / 77

Total Strikes

112 / 150

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

6:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Barnett	8 / 16	25 / 37	0 / 1	0
1	Andrei Arlovski	16 / 28	25 / 37	1 / 1	0
2	Josh Barnett	28 / 39	66 / 81	0 / 0	0
2	Andrei Arlovski	7 / 9	11 / 15	0 / 1	0
3	Josh Barnett	17 / 27	21 / 32	1 / 1	1
3	Andrei Arlovski	15 / 25	15 / 25	0 / 0	0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Josh Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5