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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1436

Andrei ArlovskivsJared VanderaaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jared Vanderaa wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Vanderaa at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrei Arlovski has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Jared Vanderaa

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1492

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Jared VanderaaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Tafa · May 21

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22

KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricJared Vanderaa

3.82

Strikes / min

4.96

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

57%

Strike defense

45%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.18

76%

Takedown defense

20%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiJared Vanderaa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.2|Blue -56.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetJared Vanderaa

By target zone

40% acc · 63%

Head

27% acc · 43%

73% acc · 30%

Body

83% acc · 34%

71% acc · 8%

Leg

94% acc · 23%

By position

47% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 79%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

68% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Jared Vanderaa rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 3Jared Vanderaa edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 133

Sig Strikes

70 / 156

46.7%

Sig Str %

44.7%

71 / 140

Total Strikes

102 / 190

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Vanderaa	23 / 58	30 / 65	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	30 / 55	32 / 57	0 / 0
2	Jared Vanderaa	19 / 42	33 / 56	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	20 / 44	23 / 47	0 / 0
3	Jared Vanderaa	28 / 56	39 / 69	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	14 / 34	16 / 36	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Jared Vanderaa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7