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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1474

Andrei ArlovskivsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Collier at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1492

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · Feb 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Jake CollierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricJake Collier

3.82

Strikes / min

5.80

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

57%

Strike defense

50%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.71

76%

Takedown defense

67%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.6|Blue -18.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetJake Collier

By target zone

48% acc · 73%

Head

46% acc · 83%

88% acc · 16%

Body

70% acc · 8%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

90% acc · 10%

By position

54% acc · 90%

Distance

47% acc · 87%

73% acc · 9%

Clinch

71% acc · 13%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 2Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

91 / 164

Sig Strikes

93 / 188

54.7%

Sig Str %

50%

105 / 178

Total Strikes

132 / 231

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

3:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Collier	25 / 46	50 / 73	0 / 1
1	Andrei Arlovski	20 / 40	31 / 51	0 / 0
2	Jake Collier	36 / 65	47 / 78	1 / 1
2	Andrei Arlovski	39 / 66	40 / 67	0 / 0
3	Jake Collier	32 / 77	35 / 80	1 / 1
3	Andrei Arlovski	32 / 58	34 / 60	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14