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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1492

Elo1502

Andrei ArlovskivsJairzinho RozenstruikUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:29

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsJairzinho Rozenstruik: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1492

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik

3.82

Strikes / min

3.48

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiJairzinho Rozenstruik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.1|Blue +10.1

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetJairzinho Rozenstruik

By target zone

17% acc · 25%

Head

50% acc · 80%

Body

100% acc · 75%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

Round 1Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

5 / 9

44%

Sig Str %

55%

4 / 9

Total Strikes

5 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Andrei Arlovski	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 0	0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15