← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1357

Andrei ArlovskivsFrank MirUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsFrank Mir: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrei Arlovski has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Frank Mir

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1492

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Frank Mir

oldest →

KOvs Josh Barnett · Aug 13

vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15

KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricFrank Mir

3.82

Strikes / min

2.18

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

57%

Strike defense

38%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

2.02

76%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap-1.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiFrank Mir

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Frank Mir(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.8|Blue -135.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetFrank Mir

By target zone

39% acc · 56%

Head

36% acc · 67%

100% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 33%

89% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 72%

Distance

29% acc · 42%

69% acc · 28%

Clinch

89% acc · 33%

Ground

67% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Frank Mir rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:29

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 2Frank Mir edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:26

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:35

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 74

Sig Strikes

24 / 52

52%

Sig Str %

46.7%

70 / 108

Total Strikes

54 / 83

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:30

Ctrl Time

3:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Frank Mir	8 / 19	18 / 30	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	17 / 27	20 / 30	0 / 0
2	Frank Mir	9 / 20	25 / 36	1 / 2
2	Andrei Arlovski	10 / 25	17 / 34	0 / 0
3	Frank Mir	7 / 13	11 / 17	0 / 3
3	Andrei Arlovski	12 / 22	33 / 44	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12