Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1492
Andrei Arlovski
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou

Andrei ArlovskivsFrancis NgannouUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:32

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Andrei Arlovski has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Ngannou has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski
Red Corner
VS
Francis Ngannou
Blue Corner
+335
(23%)
Vegas Odds
-420
(81%)
1492
Elo
1496
47
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22
L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22
L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23
L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24
L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24
latest
Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricFrancis Ngannou
3.82
Strikes / min
2.33
3.22
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
57%
Strike defense
41%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
0.76
76%
Takedown defense
71%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1551Strikes22.2 vs 17.5Takedowns0.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.24 vs 0.25Form-0.5 vs 1.0
Andrei ArlovskiFrancis Ngannou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.5|Blue +3.5
Recent Form
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +97.0|Blue -97.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetFrancis Ngannou

By target zone

1
20% acc · 33%
Head
8
62% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
2
67% acc · 67%
Leg
0

By position

3
33% acc · 100%
Distance
4
44% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
4
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Andrei Arlovski rounds
0
even
1
Francis Ngannou rounds
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 9
Sig Strikes
8 / 13
33%
Sig Str %
61%
3 / 9
Total Strikes
8 / 14
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Ngannou8 / 138 / 140 / 00
1Andrei Arlovski3 / 93 / 90 / 00

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights27

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14