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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Don'Tale Mayes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1482

Andrei ArlovskivsDon'Tale MayesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Saturday, June 3, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Don'Tale Mayes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:17

Model Prediction: Don'Tale Mayes wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Don'Tale Mayes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Don'Tale Mayes at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrei Arlovski has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Don'Tale Mayes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Don'Tale Mayes

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-136

(58%)

1492

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Vanderaa · Feb 22

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Don'Tale MayesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricDon'Tale Mayes

3.82

Strikes / min

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

57%

Strike defense

46%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.59

76%

Takedown defense

46%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiDon'Tale Mayes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.3|Blue -10.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetDon'Tale Mayes

By target zone

28% acc · 42%

Head

24% acc · 56%

90% acc · 38%

Body

29% acc · 16%

50% acc · 21%

Leg

47% acc · 28%

By position

43% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 88%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 56

Sig Strikes

25 / 87

44%

Sig Str %

29.5%

26 / 58

Total Strikes

28 / 91

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Don'Tale Mayes	8 / 47	11 / 51	0 / 1
1	Andrei Arlovski	14 / 25	16 / 27	0 / 0
2	Don'Tale Mayes	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	10 / 31	10 / 31	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10