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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC

Elo1492

Elo1459

Andrei ArlovskivsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1492

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricChase Sherman

3.82

Strikes / min

6.04

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.09

76%

Takedown defense

74%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.6|Blue -33.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -283.0|Blue +283.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

35% acc · 51%

Head

36% acc · 63%

67% acc · 25%

Body

80% acc · 18%

86% acc · 24%

Leg

94% acc · 19%

By position

103

47% acc · 98%

Distance

45% acc · 95%

40% acc · 2%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:39

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 222

Sig Strikes

88 / 192

46.3%

Sig Str %

45%

109 / 226

Total Strikes

99 / 203

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	33 / 69	33 / 69	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	27 / 65	27 / 65	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	21 / 58	32 / 69	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	32 / 69	36 / 73	0 / 0
3	Chase Sherman	34 / 65	34 / 65	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	46 / 88	46 / 88	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15