← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1494

Andrei ArlovskivsCarlos FelipeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Saturday, October 16, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsCarlos Felipe: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Carlos Felipe wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Felipe at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Carlos Felipe enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Carlos Felipe

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Carlos FelipeW3 streak

oldest →

vs Serghei Spivac · Jul 20

vs Yorgan De Castro · Oct 20

vs Justin Tafa · Jan 21

vs Jake Collier · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricCarlos Felipe

3.82

Strikes / min

4.88

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

5.60

57%

Strike defense

50%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiCarlos Felipe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Carlos Felipe(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetCarlos Felipe

By target zone

37% acc · 59%

Head

37% acc · 73%

73% acc · 13%

Body

71% acc · 21%

96% acc · 28%

Leg

83% acc · 7%

By position

48% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 74%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

86% acc · 16%

Ground

70% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Carlos Felipe rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Carlos Felipe edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Carlos Felipe edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 172

Sig Strikes

73 / 172

48%

Sig Str %

41%

84 / 173

Total Strikes

73 / 172

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Felipe	12 / 33	12 / 33	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	26 / 51	26 / 51	0 / 0
2	Carlos Felipe	30 / 74	30 / 74	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	28 / 67	28 / 67	0 / 0
3	Carlos Felipe	31 / 65	31 / 65	0 / 0
3	Andrei Arlovski	29 / 54	30 / 55	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Carlos Felipe

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5