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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1354

Andrei ArlovskivsBrendan SchaubUFC Prediction Result

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Saturday, June 14, 2014Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsBrendan Schaub: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Brendan Schaub

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1492

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Brendan Schaub

oldest →

KOvs Minotauro Nogueira · Aug 11

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12

vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13

SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricBrendan Schaub

3.82

Strikes / min

2.92

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

57%

Strike defense

57%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

2.32

76%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiBrendan Schaub

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Brendan Schaub(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.4|Blue -138.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +48.5|Blue -48.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetBrendan Schaub

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

30% acc · 77%

50% acc · 25%

Body

64% acc · 23%

50% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

22% acc · 92%

Distance

31% acc · 50%

20% acc · 8%

Clinch

38% acc · 10%

Ground

38% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Brendan Schaub rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:11

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:32

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Brendan Schaub edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:26

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 55

Sig Strikes

30 / 88

21.3%

Sig Str %

33.3%

40 / 86

Total Strikes

65 / 136

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

3:09

Ctrl Time

3:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brendan Schaub	5 / 17	6 / 18	0 / 1
1	Andrei Arlovski	5 / 14	18 / 28	0 / 1
2	Brendan Schaub	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 1
2	Andrei Arlovski	6 / 27	10 / 31	0 / 0
3	Brendan Schaub	15 / 44	49 / 91	1 / 3
3	Andrei Arlovski	1 / 14	12 / 27	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10