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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1494

Andrei ArlovskivsBen RothwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Saturday, July 20, 2019San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Ben Rothwell wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Rothwell at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Ben Rothwell

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricBen Rothwell

3.82

Strikes / min

3.71

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

57%

Strike defense

47%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.68

76%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiBen Rothwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetBen Rothwell

By target zone

103

50% acc · 68%

Head

35% acc · 79%

79% acc · 22%

Body

56% acc · 13%

94% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

152

58% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Ben Rothwell rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:16

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:34

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

152 / 263

Sig Strikes

70 / 177

58.3%

Sig Str %

39%

160 / 272

Total Strikes

75 / 183

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:50

Ctrl Time

2:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ben Rothwell	29 / 73	29 / 73	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	54 / 103	54 / 103	0 / 0
2	Ben Rothwell	16 / 52	21 / 58	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	49 / 87	55 / 94	0 / 0
3	Ben Rothwell	25 / 52	25 / 52	0 / 1
3	Andrei Arlovski	49 / 73	51 / 75	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16