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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Augusto Sakai won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1496

Andrei ArlovskivsAugusto SakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Augusto Sakai won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrei Arlovski: StrikervsAugusto Sakai: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Augusto Sakai wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Augusto Sakai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Augusto Sakai at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrei Arlovski

Red Corner

Augusto Sakai

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1492

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Augusto Sakai

oldest →

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrei ArlovskiMetricAugusto Sakai

3.82

Strikes / min

4.60

3.22

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

57%

Strike defense

48%

0.37

TDs / 15 min

0.23

76%

Takedown defense

56%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrei ArlovskiAugusto Sakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)Augusto Sakai(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.8|Blue +3.8

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrei ArlovskiTargetAugusto Sakai

By target zone

25% acc · 41%

Head

24% acc · 62%

94% acc · 39%

Body

67% acc · 19%

83% acc · 20%

Leg

67% acc · 19%

By position

40% acc · 87%

Distance

27% acc · 71%

91% acc · 13%

Clinch

63% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrei Arlovski rounds

even

Augusto Sakai rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:08

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:18

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 175

Sig Strikes

42 / 132

42.7%

Sig Str %

31.3%

82 / 182

Total Strikes

51 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

2:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Augusto Sakai	9 / 32	13 / 36	0 / 0
1	Andrei Arlovski	19 / 47	23 / 51	0 / 0
2	Augusto Sakai	17 / 47	19 / 49	0 / 0
2	Andrei Arlovski	25 / 70	26 / 71	0 / 0
3	Augusto Sakai	16 / 53	19 / 56	0 / 1
3	Andrei Arlovski	31 / 58	33 / 60	0 / 0

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9