← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1466

Andreas StahlvsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndreas Stahl: Well-roundedvsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Andreas Stahl wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andreas Stahl at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Andreas Stahl has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andreas Stahl

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1356

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andreas Stahl

oldest →

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Dec 15

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andreas StahlMetricGilbert Burns

2.83

Strikes / min

3.16

4.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

57%

Strike defense

52%

1.55

TDs / 15 min

2.04

80%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.91Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.52

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andreas Stahl(2 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -109.8|Blue +109.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andreas StahlTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

30% acc · 68%

Head

24% acc · 61%

75% acc · 22%

Body

65% acc · 34%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

30% acc · 63%

Distance

25% acc · 66%

62% acc · 32%

Clinch

68% acc · 34%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andreas Stahl rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:34

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:42

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:46

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 111

Sig Strikes

44 / 140

37.3%

Sig Str %

33%

69 / 143

Total Strikes

56 / 153

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 10

TD %

55.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

3:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Burns	11 / 25	14 / 28	1 / 9
1	Andreas Stahl	14 / 30	34 / 54	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	12 / 47	17 / 53	1 / 1
2	Andreas Stahl	14 / 42	18 / 46	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	21 / 68	25 / 72	0 / 0
3	Andreas Stahl	13 / 39	17 / 43	0 / 1

Andreas Stahl

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24