Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rinat Fakhretdinov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1495

Elo1540

Andreas GustafssonvsRinat FakhretdinovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Rinat Fakhretdinov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupAndreas Gustafsson: WrestlervsRinat Fakhretdinov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Rinat Fakhretdinov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinat Fakhretdinov at +112 American odds

+$112 profit

$212 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andreas Gustafsson

Red Corner

Rinat Fakhretdinov

Blue Corner

-132

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1495

Elo

1540

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andreas Gustafsson

oldest →

vs Khaos Williams · Jun 25

latest

Rinat FakhretdinovW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andreas Michailidis · Jun 22

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 22

SUBvs Kevin Lee · Jul 23

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jun 24

vs Carlos Leal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andreas GustafssonMetricRinat Fakhretdinov

5.82

Strikes / min

5.03

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

45%

Strike defense

54%

6.19

TDs / 15 min

3.91

100%

Takedown defense

91%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.19evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andreas GustafssonRinat Fakhretdinov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andreas Gustafsson(2 fights)Rinat Fakhretdinov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.4|Blue +45.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -224.0|Blue +224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andreas GustafssonTargetRinat Fakhretdinov

By target zone

22% acc · 80%

Head

50% acc · 83%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

22% acc · 80%

Distance

52% acc · 65%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

73% acc · 35%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andreas Gustafsson rounds

even

Rinat Fakhretdinov rounds

Round 1Rinat Fakhretdinov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 19

Sig Strikes

23 / 42

26%

Sig Str %

54%

5 / 19

Total Strikes

23 / 42

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rinat Fakhretdinov	23 / 42	23 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Andreas Gustafsson	5 / 19	5 / 19	0 / 0	0

Andreas Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Rinat Fakhretdinov

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6