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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Montana De La Rosa won · S-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1499

Andrea LeevsMontana De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Saturday, June 8, 2024Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Montana De La Rosa won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrea Lee: Pressure fightervsMontana De La Rosa: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Montana De La Rosa wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Montana De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Montana De La Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrea Lee has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Montana De La Rosa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andrea Lee

Red Corner

Montana De La Rosa

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1477

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · May 22

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Montana De La RosaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Sep 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 23

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrea LeeMetricMontana De La Rosa

4.62

Strikes / min

2.90

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

61%

Strike defense

45%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

1.85

53%

Takedown defense

68%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.71Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrea LeeMontana De La Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrea Lee(10 fights)Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.0|Blue +22.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrea LeeTargetMontana De La Rosa

By target zone

34% acc · 49%

Head

34% acc · 76%

94% acc · 39%

Body

71% acc · 17%

75% acc · 12%

Leg

71% acc · 7%

By position

45% acc · 77%

Distance

39% acc · 89%

81% acc · 17%

Clinch

31% acc · 7%

57% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrea Lee rounds

even

Montana De La Rosa rounds

Round 1Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:52

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Montana De La Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:16

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 152

Sig Strikes

70 / 180

49.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

115 / 201

Total Strikes

88 / 206

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:08

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Montana De La Rosa	14 / 44	17 / 49	1 / 2	1
1	Andrea Lee	27 / 50	52 / 80	0 / 1	0
2	Montana De La Rosa	33 / 81	37 / 86	0 / 1	0
2	Andrea Lee	31 / 68	36 / 73	0 / 1	0
3	Montana De La Rosa	23 / 55	34 / 71	2 / 3	0
3	Andrea Lee	17 / 34	27 / 48	0 / 0	0

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11