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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

JJ Aldrich won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1522

Andrea LeevsJJ AldrichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

JJ Aldrich won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrea Lee: Pressure fightervsJJ Aldrich: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: JJ Aldrich wins(61.4%)

Actual result: JJ Aldrich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JJ Aldrich at -176 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors JJ Aldrich (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andrea Lee

Red Corner

JJ Aldrich

Blue Corner

+148

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-176

(64%)

1477

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · May 22

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

latest

JJ Aldrich

oldest →

vs Ariane da Silva · Mar 23

KOvs Liang Na · Aug 23

vs Montana De La Rosa · Oct 23

vs Veronica Hardy · May 24

DECvs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrea LeeMetricJJ Aldrich

4.62

Strikes / min

3.92

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

61%

Strike defense

61%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.70

53%

Takedown defense

67%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.71Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrea LeeJJ Aldrich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrea Lee(10 fights)JJ Aldrich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.8|Blue +44.8

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrea LeeTargetJJ Aldrich

By target zone

12% acc · 25%

Head

47% acc · 73%

57% acc · 47%

Body

77% acc · 14%

68% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

30% acc · 98%

Distance

52% acc · 92%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

83% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrea Lee rounds

even

JJ Aldrich rounds

Round 1JJ Aldrich edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2JJ Aldrich edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3JJ Aldrich edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:46

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 175

Sig Strikes

74 / 137

29.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

66 / 192

Total Strikes

77 / 142

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 3

16.7%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	JJ Aldrich	21 / 43	23 / 45	1 / 1	0
1	Andrea Lee	18 / 57	18 / 57	0 / 1	0
2	JJ Aldrich	25 / 46	25 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Andrea Lee	15 / 58	18 / 61	0 / 1	0
3	JJ Aldrich	28 / 48	29 / 50	1 / 2	0
3	Andrea Lee	20 / 60	30 / 74	1 / 2	1

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

JJ Aldrich

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16