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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Andrea Lee won · SUB

Elo1477

Elo1496

Andrea LeevsAntonina ShevchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Andrea Lee won

SUB

Model Prediction: Andrea Lee wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Andrea Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrea Lee at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Antonina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andrea Lee

Red Corner

Antonina Shevchenko

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1477

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Antonina Shevchenko

oldest →

SUBvs Lucie Pudilova · Aug 19

vs Katlyn Chookagian · May 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Nov 20

KOvs Casey O'Neill · Oct 21

vs Cortney Casey · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrea LeeMetricAntonina Shevchenko

4.62

Strikes / min

3.86

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

61%

Strike defense

52%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.43

53%

Takedown defense

53%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.71evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrea LeeAntonina Shevchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrea Lee(10 fights)Antonina Shevchenko(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.7|Blue +18.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrea LeeTargetAntonina Shevchenko

By target zone

74% acc · 71%

Head

43% acc · 57%

73% acc · 24%

Body

89% acc · 35%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

54% acc · 42%

Distance

47% acc · 65%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

89% acc · 35%

95% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrea Lee rounds

even

Antonina Shevchenko rounds

Round 1Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:31

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control0:40

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 62

Sig Strikes

23 / 41

78.5%

Sig Str %

53%

88 / 108

Total Strikes

36 / 54

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:11

Ctrl Time

3:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Antonina Shevchenko	22 / 39	34 / 51	0 / 0	0
1	Andrea Lee	28 / 44	43 / 61	1 / 1	0
2	Antonina Shevchenko	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	0
2	Andrea Lee	17 / 18	45 / 47	2 / 2	3

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Antonina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8