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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Andre Winner won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1353

Andre WinnervsRafaello OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi · Wednesday, March 31, 2010Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Andre Winner won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andre Winner wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Andre Winner wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Winner at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Winner enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Winner has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Winner

Red Corner

Rafaello Oliveira

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1351

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre WinnerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nik Lentz · Aug 10

SUBvs Dennis Siver · Nov 10

vs Anthony Njokuani · Jul 11

latest

Rafaello OliveiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 11

KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11

vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12

KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13

KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre WinnerMetricRafaello Oliveira

2.52

Strikes / min

2.19

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

51%

Strike defense

59%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.49

74%

Takedown defense

11%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.05evenly matched on net striking-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre WinnerRafaello Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Winner(4 fights)Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre WinnerTargetRafaello Oliveira

By target zone

21% acc · 52%

Head

25% acc · 54%

45% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 10%

94% acc · 26%

Leg

73% acc · 37%

By position

26% acc · 77%

Distance

34% acc · 87%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

54% acc · 13%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Winner rounds

even

Rafaello Oliveira rounds

Round 1Andre Winner edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:30

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:09

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:02

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 198

Sig Strikes

52 / 146

31.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

74 / 211

Total Strikes

64 / 159

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafaello Oliveira	13 / 29	15 / 32	0 / 4
1	Andre Winner	17 / 46	22 / 51	0 / 0
2	Rafaello Oliveira	21 / 43	25 / 47	0 / 1
2	Andre Winner	24 / 69	30 / 75	0 / 0
3	Rafaello Oliveira	18 / 74	24 / 80	0 / 1
3	Andre Winner	20 / 83	22 / 85	0 / 0

Andre Winner

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Rafaello Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6