← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andre Petroski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1484

Wellington Turman editorial illustration

Andre PetroskivsWellington TurmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Andre Petroski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andre Petroski wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Andre Petroski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Petroski at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Petroski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Petroski has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Petroski (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Andre Petroski

Red Corner

Wellington Turman

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1485

Elo

1484

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre PetroskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dylan Budka · Sep 24

vs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 25

vs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 25

KOvs Cam Rowston · Sep 25

KOvs Cody Brundage · May 26

latest

Wellington TurmanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 21

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 21

SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Feb 22

vs Randy Brown · Jun 23

SUBvs Jared Gooden · Dec 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre PetroskiMetricWellington Turman

2.81

Strikes / min

3.23

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

53%

Strike defense

45%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

1.55

86%

Takedown defense

42%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre PetroskiWellington Turman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Petroski(10 fights)Wellington Turman(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre PetroskiTargetWellington Turman

By target zone

39% acc · 76%

Head

41% acc · 54%

82% acc · 21%

Body

52% acc · 29%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

78% acc · 17%

By position

41% acc · 76%

Distance

46% acc · 93%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

47% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Petroski rounds

even

Wellington Turman rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control1:04

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:23

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Round 3Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns4

Control4:32

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 96

Sig Strikes

41 / 86

46%

Sig Str %

40%

58 / 119

Total Strikes

71 / 118

8 / 11

TDs

1 / 3

72%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

7:59

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Wellington Turman	33 / 67	36 / 70	0 / 0	0
1	Andre Petroski	25 / 63	26 / 64	2 / 4	0
2	Wellington Turman	7 / 15	24 / 33	1 / 3	1
2	Andre Petroski	12 / 22	16 / 29	2 / 3	1
3	Wellington Turman	1 / 4	11 / 15	0 / 0	0
3	Andre Petroski	5 / 11	16 / 26	4 / 4	1

Andre Petroski

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Wellington Turman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9