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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andre Petroski won · S-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1457

Andre PetroskivsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Andre Petroski won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndre Petroski: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Andre Petroski wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Andre Petroski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Petroski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Andre Petroski has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Petroski (54.1%).
Gerald Meerschaert has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Petroski

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1485

Elo

1457

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre PetroskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dylan Budka · Sep 24

vs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 25

vs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 25

KOvs Cam Rowston · Sep 25

KOvs Cody Brundage · May 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre PetroskiMetricGerald Meerschaert

2.81

Strikes / min

2.95

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

53%

Strike defense

53%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

1.70

86%

Takedown defense

40%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre PetroskiGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Petroski(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.2|Blue -28.2

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre PetroskiTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

34% acc · 68%

Head

48% acc · 86%

100% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 8%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

39% acc · 81%

Distance

46% acc · 79%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

73% acc · 14%

Ground

75% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Petroski rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:23

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:07

42Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 132

Sig Strikes

76 / 149

42.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

67 / 143

Total Strikes

92 / 166

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 3

66.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gerald Meerschaert	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 0
1	Andre Petroski	13 / 42	13 / 42	1 / 1
2	Gerald Meerschaert	23 / 54	23 / 54	0 / 2
2	Andre Petroski	29 / 61	31 / 63	0 / 3
3	Gerald Meerschaert	42 / 65	58 / 82	1 / 1
3	Andre Petroski	15 / 29	23 / 38	1 / 1

Andre Petroski

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25