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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andre Petroski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1472

Andre PetroskivsDylan BudkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Petroski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andre Petroski wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Andre Petroski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Petroski at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Petroski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Petroski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Petroski

Red Corner

Dylan Budka

Blue Corner

-298

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1485

Elo

1472

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre PetroskiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Josh Fremd · Jul 24

vs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 25

vs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 25

KOvs Cam Rowston · Sep 25

KOvs Cody Brundage · May 26

latest

Dylan BudkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cesar Almeida · Apr 24

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre PetroskiMetricDylan Budka

2.81

Strikes / min

1.06

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

53%

Strike defense

42%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

1.93

86%

Takedown defense

76%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre PetroskiDylan Budka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Petroski(10 fights)Dylan Budka(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.3|Blue -13.3

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre PetroskiTargetDylan Budka

By target zone

44% acc · 70%

Head

29% acc · 82%

63% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

0% acc

By position

45% acc · 74%

Distance

27% acc · 76%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 24%

71% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Petroski rounds

even

Dylan Budka rounds

Round 1Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:46

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:47

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Andre Petroski edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:47

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 46

Sig Strikes

17 / 53

50.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

78 / 109

Total Strikes

23 / 59

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dylan Budka	4 / 16	7 / 19	0 / 0
1	Andre Petroski	8 / 17	15 / 27	1 / 1
2	Dylan Budka	8 / 18	9 / 19	0 / 0
2	Andre Petroski	7 / 12	36 / 46	1 / 2
3	Dylan Budka	5 / 19	7 / 21	0 / 0
3	Andre Petroski	8 / 17	27 / 36	1 / 2

Andre Petroski

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights12

Dylan Budka

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3