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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · SUB R3

Elo1485

Elo1550

Andre MunizvsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:25

Style matchupAndre Muniz: WrestlervsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendan Allen enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brendan Allen has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Muniz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andre Muniz

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1485

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre MunizL2 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · Jul 22

KOvs Paul Craig · Jul 23

vs JunYong Park · Dec 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Apr 25

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Oct 25

latest

Brendan AllenW3 streak

oldest →

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre MunizMetricBrendan Allen

2.08

Strikes / min

3.59

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

51%

Strike defense

47%

3.98

TDs / 15 min

1.56

35%

Takedown defense

56%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre MunizBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Muniz(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.7|Blue +65.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre MunizTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

28% acc · 58%

Head

28% acc · 50%

62% acc · 19%

Body

75% acc · 29%

91% acc · 23%

Leg

90% acc · 21%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Muniz rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:08

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 112

Sig Strikes

42 / 102

38%

Sig Str %

40.7%

45 / 114

Total Strikes

64 / 129

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

4:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan Allen	19 / 47	19 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Andre Muniz	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 1	0
2	Brendan Allen	12 / 28	25 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Andre Muniz	11 / 34	13 / 36	0 / 2	0
3	Brendan Allen	11 / 27	20 / 39	1 / 1	2
3	Andre Muniz	16 / 38	16 / 38	0 / 0	0

Andre Muniz

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19