← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andre Muniz won · SUB

Elo1485

Elo1399

Andre MunizvsBartosz FabinskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Saturday, September 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Muniz won

SUB

Style matchupAndre Muniz: WrestlervsBartosz Fabinski: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Andre Muniz wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Andre Muniz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andre Muniz at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Muniz threatens submissions; Bartosz Fabinski has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Bartosz Fabinski has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andre Muniz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andre Muniz

Red Corner

Bartosz Fabinski

Blue Corner

+132

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1485

Elo

1399

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre MunizL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 23

KOvs Paul Craig · Jul 23

vs JunYong Park · Dec 23

KOvs Ikram Aliskerov · Apr 25

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Oct 25

latest

Bartosz FabinskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Garreth McLellan · Apr 15

vs Hector Urbina · Nov 15

vs Emil Meek · Jul 18

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Nov 18

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre MunizMetricBartosz Fabinski

2.08

Strikes / min

2.23

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

1.46

51%

Strike defense

51%

3.98

TDs / 15 min

7.10

35%

Takedown defense

80%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.38Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre MunizBartosz Fabinski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Muniz(10 fights)Bartosz Fabinski(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +85.9|Blue -85.9

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -364.0|Blue +364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre MunizTargetBartosz Fabinski

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

50% acc · 60%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 40%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 20%

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

80% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Muniz rounds

even

Bartosz Fabinski rounds

Round 1Bartosz Fabinski edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:02

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 8

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

50%

Sig Str %

62%

19 / 23

Total Strikes

11 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bartosz Fabinski	5 / 8	11 / 16	1 / 2	0
1	Andre Muniz	4 / 8	19 / 23	0 / 0	2

Andre Muniz

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Bartosz Fabinski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6