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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melquizael Costa won · SUB R1
Elo1479
Andre Fili
Elo1564

Andre FilivsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Saturday, February 22, 2025Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:30

Style matchupAndre Fili: WrestlervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andre Fili
Red Corner
VS
Melquizael Costa
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-142
(59%)
1479
Elo
1564
36
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre FiliL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 24
W
vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25
L
vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26
L
KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26
latest
Melquizael Costa
oldest →
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25
W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25
W
KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25
W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26
L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre FiliMetricMelquizael Costa
3.88
Strikes / min
4.38
4.34
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
50%
Strike defense
54%
2.32
TDs / 15 min
2.00
71%
Takedown defense
58%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1500Strikes3.9 vs 4.4Takedowns2.3 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 1.10Form0.3 vs 0.3
Andre FiliMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601493152515581590← oldermost recent →
Andre Fili(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -84.3|Blue +84.3
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre FiliTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

4
20% acc · 57%
Head
3
12% acc · 11%
3
75% acc · 43%
Body
10
77% acc · 37%
0
Leg
14
78% acc · 52%

By position

7
29% acc · 100%
Distance
26
47% acc · 96%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 4%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Andre Fili rounds
0
even
1
Melquizael Costa rounds
Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control0:24
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 24
Sig Strikes
27 / 56
29%
Sig Str %
48%
7 / 24
Total Strikes
27 / 56
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:24
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Melquizael Costa27 / 5627 / 560 / 11
1Andre Fili7 / 247 / 241 / 10

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights26

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9