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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Andre Fili won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1479
Andre Fili
Elo1479
Lucas Almeida

Andre FilivsLucas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Fili won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:32

Style matchupAndre Fili: WrestlervsLucas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Lucas Almeida wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Andre Fili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Andre Fili has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Fili
Red Corner
VS
Lucas Almeida
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1479
Elo
1479
36
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre FiliL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24
L
SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25
L
vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26
L
KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26
latest
Lucas AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Michael Trizano · Jun 22
L
SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Jun 23
W
vs Timmy Cuamba · Jun 24
L
vs Danny Silva · Mar 25
L
KOvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre FiliMetricLucas Almeida
3.88
Strikes / min
4.94
4.34
Strikes absorbed / min
5.36
50%
Strike defense
44%
2.32
TDs / 15 min
0.00
71%
Takedown defense
53%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1502Strikes3.9 vs 4.9Takedowns2.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -0.4
Andre FiliLucas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Andre Fili(10 fights)Lucas Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre FiliTargetLucas Almeida

By target zone

16
55% acc · 80%
Head
1
9% acc · 10%
3
50% acc · 15%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
9
69% acc · 90%

By position

8
38% acc · 40%
Distance
10
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
12
80% acc · 60%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Andre Fili rounds
0
even
0
Lucas Almeida rounds
Round 1Andre Fili edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:15
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 36
Sig Strikes
10 / 25
55%
Sig Str %
40%
25 / 42
Total Strikes
10 / 25
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:15
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lucas Almeida10 / 2510 / 250 / 00
1Andre Fili20 / 3625 / 420 / 00

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights26

Lucas Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6