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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Andre Fili won · S-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1521

Andre FilivsChristian RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Saturday, August 9, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Fili won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndre Fili: WrestlervsChristian Rodriguez: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Christian Rodriguez wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Andre Fili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Rodriguez at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Fili enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Fili

Red Corner

Christian Rodriguez

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1479

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre FiliL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 24

vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25

vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26

latest

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre FiliMetricChristian Rodriguez

3.88

Strikes / min

3.85

4.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.85

50%

Strike defense

56%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

1.75

71%

Takedown defense

67%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre FiliChristian Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Fili(10 fights)Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre FiliTargetChristian Rodriguez

By target zone

32% acc · 81%

Head

38% acc · 59%

60% acc · 9%

Body

62% acc · 10%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

84% acc · 31%

By position

35% acc · 97%

Distance

44% acc · 83%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

81% acc · 16%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Fili rounds

even

Christian Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Andre Fili edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control1:42

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 182

Sig Strikes

83 / 174

35%

Sig Str %

47.3%

74 / 193

Total Strikes

95 / 190

3 / 5

TDs

1 / 7

37.5%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Christian Rodriguez	29 / 64	29 / 66	1 / 3
1	Andre Fili	22 / 63	27 / 68	0 / 0
2	Christian Rodriguez	29 / 56	30 / 57	0 / 3
2	Andre Fili	23 / 69	23 / 69	0 / 1
3	Christian Rodriguez	25 / 54	36 / 67	0 / 1
3	Andre Fili	19 / 50	24 / 56	3 / 4

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights26

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10