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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Joaquin Buckley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1473

Elo1516

Andre FialhovsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joaquin Buckley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:15

Style matchupAndre Fialho: StrikervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Joaquin Buckley wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Joaquin Buckley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joaquin Buckley at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Fialho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andre Fialho is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Joaquin Buckley is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Andre Fialho has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Joaquin Buckley has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Andre Fialho

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

+194

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1473

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre FialhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · Apr 22

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · May 22

KOvs Jake Matthews · Jun 22

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 22

KOvs Tim Means · Sep 23

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre FialhoMetricJoaquin Buckley

3.30

Strikes / min

3.62

6.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

45%

Strike defense

58%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

1.43

66%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.96Δ 3.48 — meaningful gap+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre FialhoJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Fialho(7 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.1|Blue +43.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre FialhoTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

33% acc · 64%

Head

18% acc · 46%

88% acc · 32%

Body

50% acc · 35%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

42% acc · 95%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Fialho rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:07

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 51

Sig Strikes

26 / 89

42.5%

Sig Str %

28.5%

22 / 51

Total Strikes

27 / 90

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	10 / 36	10 / 36	2 / 3
1	Andre Fialho	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	16 / 53	17 / 54	0 / 0
2	Andre Fialho	14 / 32	14 / 32	0 / 0

Andre Fialho

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17