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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1473

Elo1522

Andre FialhovsJake MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Saturday, June 11, 2022Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:24

Style matchupAndre Fialho: StrikervsJake Matthews: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Fialho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jake Matthews has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Fialho

Red Corner

Jake Matthews

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1473

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre FialhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · Apr 22

KOvs Cameron VanCamp · May 22

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 22

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · May 23

KOvs Tim Means · Sep 23

latest

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre FialhoMetricJake Matthews

3.30

Strikes / min

3.34

6.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

45%

Strike defense

60%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

1.44

66%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.96Δ 3.68 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andre FialhoJake Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Fialho(7 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -427.0|Blue +427.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre FialhoTargetJake Matthews

By target zone

30% acc · 72%

Head

47% acc · 74%

33% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

80% acc · 17%

By position

37% acc · 100%

Distance

51% acc · 94%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Fialho rounds

even

Jake Matthews rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 51

Sig Strikes

47 / 89

38.5%

Sig Str %

52.5%

19 / 52

Total Strikes

47 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Matthews	27 / 53	27 / 53	0 / 0
1	Andre Fialho	12 / 38	13 / 39	0 / 0
2	Jake Matthews	20 / 36	20 / 36	0 / 0
2	Andre Fialho	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0

Andre Fialho

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25