← All fights/Event page

Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Anderson Silva won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1391

Elo1490

Anderson SilvavsStephan BonnarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Anderson Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:40

Style matchupAnderson Silva: Well-roundedvsStephan Bonnar: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Anderson Silva wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Anderson Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anderson Silva at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anderson Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Anderson Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Anderson Silva

Red Corner

Stephan Bonnar

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1391

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anderson SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Daniel Cormier · Jul 16

vs Derek Brunson · Feb 17

vs Israel Adesanya · Feb 19

KOvs Jared Cannonier · May 19

KOvs Uriah Hall · Oct 20

latest

Stephan BonnarW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Krzysztof Soszynski · Jul 10

vs Igor Pokrajac · Dec 10

vs Kyle Kingsbury · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anderson SilvaMetricStephan Bonnar

3.05

Strikes / min

2.76

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

60%

Strike defense

52%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.32

69%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anderson SilvaStephan Bonnar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anderson Silva(10 fights)Stephan Bonnar(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -99.4|Blue +99.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anderson SilvaTargetStephan Bonnar

By target zone

65% acc · 79%

Head

27% acc · 75%

100% acc · 21%

Body

29% acc · 17%

Leg

33% acc · 8%

By position

57% acc · 21%

Distance

22% acc · 50%

83% acc · 53%

Clinch

38% acc · 50%

63% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anderson Silva rounds

even

Stephan Bonnar rounds

Round 1Anderson Silva edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:59Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 27

Sig Strikes

12 / 43

70%

Sig Str %

27%

27 / 35

Total Strikes

28 / 59

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

2:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephan Bonnar	12 / 43	28 / 59	0 / 3	0
1	Anderson Silva	19 / 27	27 / 35	0 / 0	0

Anderson Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Stephan Bonnar

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4