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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anderson Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1454

Anderson SilvavsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · Saturday, February 11, 2017Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Anderson Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAnderson Silva: Well-roundedvsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Anderson Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anderson Silva enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Anderson Silva is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Anderson Silva has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Anderson Silva

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1391

Elo

1454

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anderson SilvaL5 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Feb 16

vs Daniel Cormier · Jul 16

vs Israel Adesanya · Feb 19

KOvs Jared Cannonier · May 19

KOvs Uriah Hall · Oct 20

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anderson SilvaMetricDerek Brunson

3.05

Strikes / min

3.51

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

60%

Strike defense

51%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

3.14

69%

Takedown defense

85%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anderson SilvaDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anderson Silva(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.5|Blue +63.5

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anderson SilvaTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

50% acc · 65%

Head

45% acc · 67%

68% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 9%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

81% acc · 24%

By position

49% acc · 70%

Distance

49% acc · 61%

67% acc · 19%

Clinch

63% acc · 35%

100% acc · 12%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anderson Silva rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 78

Sig Strikes

54 / 101

52%

Sig Str %

51%

54 / 89

Total Strikes

118 / 184

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Derek Brunson	20 / 36	43 / 60	0 / 2
1	Anderson Silva	8 / 20	9 / 21	0 / 0
2	Derek Brunson	9 / 21	15 / 30	1 / 4
2	Anderson Silva	10 / 19	17 / 26	0 / 0
3	Derek Brunson	25 / 44	60 / 94	1 / 4
3	Anderson Silva	25 / 39	28 / 42	0 / 0

Anderson Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21