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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Anderson Silva won · SUB R5

Elo1391

Elo1490

Anderson SilvavsChael SonnenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Anderson Silva won

SUB · Round 5 · 3:10

Style matchupAnderson Silva: Well-roundedvsChael Sonnen: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anderson Silva wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Anderson Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anderson Silva at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anderson Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anderson Silva is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Chael Sonnen has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Anderson Silva has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Anderson Silva

Red Corner

Chael Sonnen

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+410

(20%)

1391

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Anderson SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Daniel Cormier · Jul 16

vs Derek Brunson · Feb 17

vs Israel Adesanya · Feb 19

KOvs Jared Cannonier · May 19

KOvs Uriah Hall · Oct 20

latest

Chael Sonnen

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Jan 12

KOvs Anderson Silva · Jul 12

KOvs Jon Jones · Apr 13

SUBvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 13

KOvs Rashad Evans · Nov 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Anderson SilvaMetricChael Sonnen

3.05

Strikes / min

3.08

2.05

Strikes absorbed / min

1.10

60%

Strike defense

62%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

3.81

69%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Anderson SilvaChael Sonnen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Anderson Silva(10 fights)Chael Sonnen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -99.5|Blue +99.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Anderson SilvaTargetChael Sonnen

By target zone

47% acc · 72%

Head

48% acc · 76%

70% acc · 24%

Body

89% acc · 9%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

76% acc · 15%

By position

33% acc · 41%

Distance

29% acc · 16%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

81% acc · 59%

Ground

62% acc · 81%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Anderson Silva rounds

even

Chael Sonnen rounds

Round 1Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:05

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 2Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:51Control

Round 3Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:35Control

Round 4Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:25

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:07Control

Round 5Chael Sonnen edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 57

Sig Strikes

89 / 168

49.6%

Sig Str %

54%

64 / 95

Total Strikes

320 / 434

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

19:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chael Sonnen	31 / 64	47 / 85	1 / 2	0
1	Anderson Silva	4 / 13	4 / 13	1 / 1	0
2	Chael Sonnen	15 / 22	71 / 89	1 / 1	0
2	Anderson Silva	7 / 10	18 / 21	0 / 0	1
3	Chael Sonnen	21 / 28	96 / 109	1 / 1	0
3	Anderson Silva	3 / 8	9 / 15	0 / 0	0
4	Anderson Silva	11 / 18	23 / 31	0 / 0	0
4	Chael Sonnen	16 / 38	64 / 93	0 / 2	0
5	Chael Sonnen	6 / 16	42 / 58	0 / 1	1
5	Anderson Silva	4 / 8	10 / 15	0 / 0	2

Anderson Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Chael Sonnen

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7