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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Amir Sadollah won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1351

Amir SadollahvsJorge LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Amir Sadollah won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAmir Sadollah: Pressure fightervsJorge Lopez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Amir Sadollah wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Amir Sadollah wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amir Sadollah at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amir Sadollah enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amir Sadollah has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jorge Lopez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amir Sadollah

Red Corner

Jorge Lopez

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1354

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

183 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amir SadollahL3 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Nov 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Mar 11

vs Duane Ludwig · Aug 11

vs Dan Hardy · Sep 12

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Sep 14

latest

Jorge Lopez

oldest →

vs Justin Edwards · Sep 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amir SadollahMetricJorge Lopez

4.71

Strikes / min

2.47

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

3.50

60%

Takedown defense

81%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amir SadollahJorge Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amir Sadollah(7 fights)Jorge Lopez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +34.0|Blue -34.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amir SadollahTargetJorge Lopez

By target zone

27% acc · 39%

Head

42% acc · 59%

65% acc · 36%

Body

67% acc · 19%

75% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

35% acc · 64%

Distance

49% acc · 84%

76% acc · 36%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amir Sadollah rounds

even

Jorge Lopez rounds

Round 1Jorge Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:51

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Jorge Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:20

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 3Amir Sadollah edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:41

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:13Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 83

Sig Strikes

32 / 61

43%

Sig Str %

51%

77 / 129

Total Strikes

39 / 72

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 14

33.3%

TD %

32.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

8:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Lopez	20 / 33	22 / 35	1 / 3	0
1	Amir Sadollah	9 / 27	24 / 43	0 / 1	0
2	Jorge Lopez	6 / 10	6 / 10	2 / 4	0
2	Amir Sadollah	13 / 27	23 / 37	0 / 1	1
3	Jorge Lopez	6 / 18	11 / 27	1 / 7	0
3	Amir Sadollah	14 / 29	30 / 49	1 / 1	0

Amir Sadollah

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7

Jorge Lopez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2