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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Duane Ludwig won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1352

Amir SadollahvsDuane LudwigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Duane Ludwig won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAmir Sadollah: Pressure fightervsDuane Ludwig: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Amir Sadollah wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Duane Ludwig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amir Sadollah at -395 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amir Sadollah has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Amir Sadollah

Red Corner

Duane Ludwig

Blue Corner

-395

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+350

(22%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amir SadollahL2 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Nov 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Mar 11

vs Jorge Lopez · May 12

vs Dan Hardy · Sep 12

vs Yoshihiro Akiyama · Sep 14

latest

Duane LudwigL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10

vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10

SUBvs Josh Neer · Jan 12

KOvs Dan Hardy · May 12

KOvs Che Mills · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amir SadollahMetricDuane Ludwig

4.71

Strikes / min

4.62

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

0.43

60%

Takedown defense

59%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16evenly matched on net striking+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amir SadollahDuane Ludwig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amir Sadollah(7 fights)Duane Ludwig(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amir SadollahTargetDuane Ludwig

By target zone

26% acc · 47%

Head

34% acc · 78%

39% acc · 21%

Body

58% acc · 18%

86% acc · 32%

Leg

71% acc · 4%

By position

36% acc · 93%

Distance

102

34% acc · 83%

54% acc · 7%

Clinch

69% acc · 16%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amir Sadollah rounds

even

Duane Ludwig rounds

Round 1Duane Ludwig edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:45

57Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 2Duane Ludwig edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:12

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Amir Sadollah edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:02

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 256

Sig Strikes

123 / 328

36.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

96 / 257

Total Strikes

125 / 331

0 / 8

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Duane Ludwig	57 / 119	57 / 119	0 / 0
1	Amir Sadollah	26 / 83	27 / 84	0 / 3
2	Duane Ludwig	37 / 102	37 / 102	0 / 1
2	Amir Sadollah	32 / 78	32 / 78	0 / 2
3	Duane Ludwig	29 / 107	31 / 110	1 / 1
3	Amir Sadollah	37 / 95	37 / 95	0 / 3

Amir Sadollah

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights7

Duane Ludwig

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6