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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Amir Albazi won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1495

Amir AlbazivsFrancisco FigueiredoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Amir Albazi won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:34

Model Prediction: Amir Albazi wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Amir Albazi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amir Albazi at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amir Albazi threatens submissions; Francisco Figueiredo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Figueiredo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amir Albazi

Red Corner

Francisco Figueiredo

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1494

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amir AlbaziL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov · Jan 21

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Dec 22

vs Kai Kara-France · Jun 23

vs Brandon Moreno · Nov 24

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Feb 26

latest

Francisco Figueiredo

oldest →

vs Jerome Rivera · Jan 21

vs Malcolm Gordon · Jul 21

SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amir AlbaziMetricFrancisco Figueiredo

2.47

Strikes / min

2.04

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

59%

Strike defense

61%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

2.51

62%

Takedown defense

76%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.41evenly matched on net striking-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amir AlbaziFrancisco Figueiredo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amir Albazi(7 fights)Francisco Figueiredo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +462.0|Blue -462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amir AlbaziTargetFrancisco Figueiredo

By target zone

63% acc · 83%

Head

67% acc · 18%

100% acc · 8%

Body

80% acc · 36%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

71% acc · 45%

By position

38% acc · 25%

Distance

73% acc · 100%

Clinch

90% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amir Albazi rounds

even

Francisco Figueiredo rounds

Round 1Amir Albazi edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:36

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 18

Sig Strikes

11 / 15

66%

Sig Str %

73%

23 / 29

Total Strikes

14 / 18

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Figueiredo	11 / 15	14 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Amir Albazi	12 / 18	23 / 29	2 / 4	1

Amir Albazi

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Francisco Figueiredo

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4