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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Amir Albazi won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1543

Amir AlbazivsAlessandro CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amir Albazi won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:13

Model Prediction: Amir Albazi wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Amir Albazi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amir Albazi at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alessandro Costa has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amir Albazi

Red Corner

Alessandro Costa

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1494

Elo

1543

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amir AlbaziL2 streak

oldest →

vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov · Jan 21

SUBvs Francisco Figueiredo · Aug 22

vs Kai Kara-France · Jun 23

vs Brandon Moreno · Nov 24

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Feb 26

latest

Alessandro CostaW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

KOvs Matt Schnell · Jun 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amir AlbaziMetricAlessandro Costa

2.47

Strikes / min

3.73

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

0.79

62%

Takedown defense

86%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.41Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amir AlbaziAlessandro Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amir Albazi(7 fights)Alessandro Costa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amir AlbaziTargetAlessandro Costa

By target zone

34% acc · 62%

Head

11% acc · 35%

100% acc · 27%

Body

60% acc · 35%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

83% acc · 29%

By position

40% acc · 62%

Distance

23% acc · 94%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

61% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amir Albazi rounds

even

Alessandro Costa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:35

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Amir Albazi edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control4:24

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Amir Albazi edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:55

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 81

Sig Strikes

17 / 71

46.7%

Sig Str %

20%

62 / 110

Total Strikes

38 / 107

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:54

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alessandro Costa	11 / 41	13 / 43	0 / 0
1	Amir Albazi	9 / 32	10 / 33	0 / 3
2	Alessandro Costa	1 / 9	19 / 40	0 / 0
2	Amir Albazi	18 / 29	42 / 57	0 / 0
3	Alessandro Costa	5 / 21	6 / 24	0 / 0
3	Amir Albazi	10 / 20	10 / 20	1 / 1

Amir Albazi

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8