Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Rose Namajunas won · U-DEC R5

Elo1480

Elo1499

Amanda RibasvsRose NamajunasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rose Namajunas won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Ribas: WrestlervsRose Namajunas: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Ribas wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Rose Namajunas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Ribas at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Ribas has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Ribas

Red Corner

Rose Namajunas

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-218

(69%)

1480

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda RibasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Mar 23

KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23

KOvs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 23

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Jan 25

KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25

latest

Rose Namajunas

oldest →

vs Manon Fiorot · Sep 23

vs Tracy Cortez · Jul 24

vs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 24

vs Miranda Maverick · Jun 25

vs Natalia Silva · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda RibasMetricRose Namajunas

4.26

Strikes / min

3.50

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

60%

Strike defense

63%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

1.47

82%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.97evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda RibasRose Namajunas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Ribas(10 fights)Rose Namajunas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.9|Blue +18.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda RibasTargetRose Namajunas

By target zone

20% acc · 47%

Head

36% acc · 48%

45% acc · 23%

Body

73% acc · 47%

76% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

29% acc · 92%

Distance

46% acc · 87%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

60% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Ribas rounds

even

Rose Namajunas rounds

Round 1Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control0:18

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

Round 2Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 3Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control1:20

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 4Rose Namajunas edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 270

Sig Strikes

93 / 188

30.6%

Sig Str %

48.2%

137 / 342

Total Strikes

169 / 281

4 / 8

TDs

1 / 3

44%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:38

Ctrl Time

6:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rose Namajunas	23 / 34	35 / 55	0 / 0
1	Amanda Ribas	16 / 47	30 / 63	2 / 3
2	Rose Namajunas	19 / 39	43 / 65	0 / 1
2	Amanda Ribas	15 / 49	22 / 57	0 / 2
3	Rose Namajunas	19 / 36	20 / 38	0 / 0
3	Amanda Ribas	18 / 50	31 / 70	2 / 3
4	Amanda Ribas	10 / 39	29 / 66	0 / 0
4	Rose Namajunas	7 / 25	45 / 68	1 / 1
5	Rose Namajunas	25 / 54	26 / 55	0 / 1
5	Amanda Ribas	24 / 85	25 / 86	0 / 0

Amanda Ribas

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Rose Namajunas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights19