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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Ribas won · SUB R1

Elo1480

Elo1492

Amanda RibasvsPaige VanZantUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Amanda Ribas won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:21

Style matchupAmanda Ribas: WrestlervsPaige VanZant: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Amanda Ribas wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Amanda Ribas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Ribas at -770 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Ribas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Amanda Ribas has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Amanda Ribas has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Ribas

Red Corner

Paige VanZant

Blue Corner

-770

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1480

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda RibasL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23

KOvs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Mar 24

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Jan 25

KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25

latest

Paige VanZant

oldest →

SUBvs Rose Namajunas · Dec 15

KOvs Bec Rawlings · Aug 16

SUBvs Michelle Waterson · Dec 16

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Jan 18

SUBvs Rachael Ostovich · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda RibasMetricPaige VanZant

4.26

Strikes / min

3.35

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.62

60%

Strike defense

42%

2.05

TDs / 15 min

1.27

82%

Takedown defense

34%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.97evenly matched on net striking+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda RibasPaige VanZant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Ribas(10 fights)Paige VanZant(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.4|Blue +12.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -420.0|Blue +420.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda RibasTargetPaige VanZant

By target zone

100% acc · 17%

Head

100% acc · 33%

80% acc · 67%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 17%

Leg

67% acc · 67%

By position

75% acc · 50%

Distance

75% acc · 100%

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Ribas rounds

even

Paige VanZant rounds

Round 1Amanda Ribas edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:08

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 7

Sig Strikes

3 / 5

85%

Sig Str %

60%

13 / 15

Total Strikes

4 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paige VanZant	3 / 5	4 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Amanda Ribas	6 / 7	13 / 15	1 / 1	1

Amanda Ribas

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights13

Paige VanZant

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9