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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Amanda Nunes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1501

Elo1526

Amanda NunesvsValentina ShevchenkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Nunes: WrestlervsValentina Shevchenko: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(74.0%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes

Red Corner

Valentina Shevchenko

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1501

Elo

1526

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricValentina Shevchenko

4.55

Strikes / min

3.04

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

57%

Strike defense

63%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

2.65

82%

Takedown defense

76%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.93evenly matched on net striking+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda NunesValentina Shevchenko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.1|Blue +25.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetValentina Shevchenko

By target zone

40% acc · 54%

Head

38% acc · 79%

55% acc · 15%

Body

50% acc · 11%

71% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

40% acc · 51%

Distance

31% acc · 57%

Clinch

63% acc · 18%

61% acc · 49%

Ground

88% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Nunes rounds

even

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:43

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:55

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 81

Sig Strikes

28 / 67

43.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

66 / 112

Total Strikes

56 / 99

2 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

66.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:38

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Valentina Shevchenko	8 / 19	10 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Amanda Nunes	14 / 37	20 / 43	1 / 1	0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	3 / 7	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Amanda Nunes	22 / 33	43 / 58	1 / 1	2
3	Valentina Shevchenko	17 / 41	41 / 69	1 / 1	0
3	Amanda Nunes	3 / 11	3 / 11	0 / 4	0

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18