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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Amanda Nunes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1501
Amanda Nunes
Elo1354
Shayna Baszler

Amanda NunesvsShayna BaszlerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:56

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Amanda Nunes has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes
Red Corner
VS
Shayna Baszler
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+525
(16%)
1501
Elo
1354
38
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20
W
SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21
W
vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22
W
vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23
latest
Shayna Baszler
oldest →
L
KOvs Bethe Correia · Aug 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricShayna Baszler
4.55
Strikes / min
2.49
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
6.36
57%
Strike defense
51%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
0.67
82%
Takedown defense
44%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.93Δ 5.80 — meaningful gap-3.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1485Strikes15.3 vs 8.0Takedowns1.3 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-0.1 vs -1.0
Amanda NunesShayna Baszler

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Shayna Baszler(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetShayna Baszler

By target zone

8
89% acc · 53%
Head
1
14% acc · 100%
1
50% acc · 7%
Body
0
6
100% acc · 40%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

13
93% acc · 87%
Distance
1
14% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
67% acc · 13%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Amanda Nunes rounds
0
even
0
Shayna Baszler rounds
Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
15 / 17
Sig Strikes
1 / 8
88%
Sig Str %
12%
17 / 20
Total Strikes
1 / 8
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Shayna Baszler1 / 81 / 80 / 20
1Amanda Nunes15 / 1717 / 200 / 00

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights18

Shayna Baszler

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach—
Fights2