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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Amanda Nunes won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1501

Elo1504

Amanda NunesvsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · Saturday, May 12, 2018Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 2:36

Style matchupAmanda Nunes: WrestlervsRaquel Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Nunes has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

-700

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1501

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricRaquel Pennington

4.55

Strikes / min

4.10

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

57%

Strike defense

61%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

0.83

82%

Takedown defense

62%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.93Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda NunesRaquel Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -301.0|Blue +301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

42% acc · 58%

Head

33% acc · 77%

67% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 16%

57% acc · 17%

Leg

83% acc · 8%

By position

44% acc · 77%

Distance

35% acc · 88%

79% acc · 12%

Clinch

88% acc · 11%

81% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Nunes rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:03

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Round 3Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:45

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 4Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:20

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 5Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

124 / 254

Sig Strikes

64 / 169

49.4%

Sig Str %

39%

152 / 288

Total Strikes

79 / 186

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 8

83.3%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:29

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raquel Pennington	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 1
1	Amanda Nunes	33 / 74	34 / 75	0 / 0
2	Raquel Pennington	18 / 48	22 / 52	1 / 3
2	Amanda Nunes	27 / 59	28 / 60	0 / 0
3	Raquel Pennington	12 / 36	15 / 39	0 / 2
3	Amanda Nunes	18 / 40	29 / 51	1 / 2
4	Amanda Nunes	27 / 48	35 / 59	1 / 1
4	Raquel Pennington	8 / 32	10 / 34	0 / 2
5	Raquel Pennington	7 / 13	13 / 21	0 / 0
5	Amanda Nunes	19 / 33	26 / 43	1 / 1

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19