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Women's Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Amanda Nunes won · SUB
Elo1501
Amanda Nunes
Elo1493

Amanda NunesvsMegan AndersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

SUB

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(83.1%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Megan Anderson is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Amanda Nunes has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Amanda Nunes has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Amanda Nunes has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes
Red Corner
VS
Megan Anderson
Blue Corner
-700
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+500
(17%)
1501
Elo
1493
38
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'0"
175.26 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · Dec 19
W
vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21
W
vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22
W
vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23
latest
Megan AndersonW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Holly Holm · Jun 18
W
KOvs Cat Zingano · Dec 18
L
SUBvs Felicia Spencer · May 19
W
SUBvs Zarah Fairn · Oct 19
W
KOvs Norma Dumont · Feb 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricMegan Anderson
4.55
Strikes / min
1.76
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.35
57%
Strike defense
37%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
0.52
82%
Takedown defense
53%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.93Δ 3.52 — meaningful gap-1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1665 vs 1518Strikes4.5 vs 1.8Takedowns2.5 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 0.5
Amanda NunesMegan Anderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Megan Anderson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +8.1|Blue -8.1
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetMegan Anderson

By target zone

15
68% acc · 83%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
3
100% acc · 17%
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

10
63% acc · 56%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
8
89% acc · 44%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Amanda Nunes rounds
0
even
0
Megan Anderson rounds
Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:42
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 25
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
72%
Sig Str %
40%
19 / 26
Total Strikes
2 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Megan Anderson2 / 52 / 50 / 10
1Amanda Nunes18 / 2519 / 260 / 02

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights18

Megan Anderson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6