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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Julianna Pena won · SUB R2

Elo1501

Elo1496

Amanda NunesvsJulianna PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Julianna Pena won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:26

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Julianna Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -1125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Nunes enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Amanda Nunes has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes

Red Corner

Julianna Pena

Blue Corner

-1125

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1501

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW5 streak

oldest →

vs Germaine de Randamie · Dec 19

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Germaine de Randamie · Oct 20

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricJulianna Pena

4.55

Strikes / min

3.10

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.56

57%

Strike defense

57%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

1.70

82%

Takedown defense

24%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.93Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda NunesJulianna Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Julianna Pena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.1|Blue -5.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetJulianna Pena

By target zone

42% acc · 78%

Head

57% acc · 87%

33% acc · 2%

Body

77% acc · 13%

82% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 96%

Distance

58% acc · 99%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Nunes rounds

even

Julianna Pena rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:35

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

74Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 99

Sig Strikes

79 / 135

56.5%

Sig Str %

44.5%

58 / 112

Total Strikes

90 / 147

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:35

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julianna Pena	5 / 20	16 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Amanda Nunes	10 / 14	22 / 27	1 / 1	0
2	Julianna Pena	74 / 115	74 / 115	1 / 1	1
2	Amanda Nunes	36 / 85	36 / 85	0 / 0	0

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12