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Women's Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Amanda Nunes won · U-DEC R5
Elo1501
Amanda Nunes
Elo1499
Irene Aldana

Amanda NunesvsIrene AldanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Saturday, June 10, 2023Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Nunes: WrestlervsIrene Aldana: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes
Red Corner
VS
Irene Aldana
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1501
Elo
1499
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda Nunes
oldest →
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · Dec 19
W
vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20
W
SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21
L
SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21
W
vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22
latest
Irene Aldana
oldest →
L
vs Holly Holm · Oct 20
W
KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21
W
KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22
W
vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23
L
vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricIrene Aldana
4.55
Strikes / min
5.19
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
6.64
57%
Strike defense
56%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
0.15
82%
Takedown defense
77%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.93Δ 3.38 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1666 vs 1554Strikes4.5 vs 5.2Takedowns2.7 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.20Form0.5 vs 0.8
Amanda NunesIrene Aldana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Irene Aldana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.4|Blue -2.4
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetIrene Aldana

By target zone

97
49% acc · 68%
Head
25
21% acc · 61%
28
57% acc · 20%
Body
3
43% acc · 7%
17
85% acc · 12%
Leg
13
72% acc · 32%

By position

115
49% acc · 81%
Distance
36
27% acc · 88%
5
63% acc · 4%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 7%
22
88% acc · 15%
Ground
2
29% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Amanda Nunes rounds
0
even
0
Irene Aldana rounds
Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:01
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns1
Control0:05
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns3
Control2:05
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 4Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes48
Takedowns1
Control0:13
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 5Amanda Nunes edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control4:36
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
142 / 267
Sig Strikes
41 / 143
54%
Sig Str %
28.2%
196 / 323
Total Strikes
57 / 159
6 / 13
TDs
0 / 0
40%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
7:00
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Irene Aldana8 / 318 / 310 / 00
1Amanda Nunes21 / 5621 / 560 / 10
2Irene Aldana11 / 3811 / 380 / 00
2Amanda Nunes31 / 6131 / 611 / 20
3Irene Aldana8 / 228 / 220 / 00
3Amanda Nunes23 / 4725 / 493 / 40
4Irene Aldana13 / 4813 / 480 / 00
4Amanda Nunes48 / 7749 / 781 / 40
5Amanda Nunes19 / 2670 / 791 / 20
5Irene Aldana1 / 417 / 200 / 00

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights18

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14