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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Amanda Nunes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1501

Elo1497

Amanda NunesvsHolly HolmUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Style matchupAmanda Nunes: WrestlervsHolly Holm: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Holly Holm (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes

Red Corner

Holly Holm

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1501

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Holly Holm

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 20

vs Irene Aldana · Oct 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · May 22

vs Yana Santos · Mar 23

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricHolly Holm

4.55

Strikes / min

3.13

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

57%

Strike defense

55%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

0.87

82%

Takedown defense

76%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.93Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda NunesHolly Holm

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Holly Holm(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.9|Blue -3.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetHolly Holm

By target zone

35% acc · 47%

Head

75% acc · 27%

67% acc · 35%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 18%

Leg

89% acc · 73%

By position

41% acc · 65%

Distance

79% acc · 100%

75% acc · 18%

Clinch

75% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Nunes rounds

even

Holly Holm rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 35

Sig Strikes

11 / 14

48%

Sig Str %

78%

17 / 36

Total Strikes

14 / 17

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Holly Holm	11 / 14	14 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Amanda Nunes	17 / 35	17 / 36	0 / 1	0

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18

Holly Holm

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15